Kazakhstan is a country with high climate risks
Experts of the Central Asian Climate Fund CACF and the ESGQ Rating Agency made an analysis of climate risks for Kazakhstan's business. Having studied in detail the data of meteorological stations, satellite observations, Kazhydromet bulletins and CMIP6 scenarios, using a unique assessment methodology, experts came to the conclusion that Kazakhstan is a country with high climatic risks, which in the future will have a negative impact on the economy and quality of life of the population.
The analysis was carried out on 12 types of hazards, including: heat, water stress, wildfires, river floods, wind and dust storms, mudflows and avalanches, drought, land conditions, heat stress, frost and blizzards, showers and hail, Caspian: surges and level.
According to the study, out of 20 regions of the republic, 2 have a very high level of risks, 5 - high, 8 - medium, 5 - low.
Seven hazards (heat, water stress, wildfires, river floods, wind and dust storms, mudslides and avalanches, drought) are relevant for the country as a whole. A very high and high level of risks is characteristic of 40% of the territory of the republic, where 27% of the population live. Water stress is relevant for 69% of the territory, where 56% of the population live. The danger of heat is characteristic of 52% of the territory, where 44% of the population live. Thus, Kazakhstan is assigned a high level of climate risks.
Very high level of risks in Atyrau and Mangistau regions, where at the same time there are such dangers as heat, heat stress, drought, water stress, Caspian: surges and level, land condition, wind and dust storms.
Experts note that over the past decades in all regions there have been more droughts, in Kazakhstan this figure has grown from 11 to 30%.
In 12 regions, the number of years when the water level (floods) reached a dangerous level increased, in Kazakhstan this figure increased from 2.3 to 5.6%.
Throughout the country, there is an increase in the number of days per year with temperatures above 35 °C. Currently, in Kazakhstan, on average, this indicator is 13 days, the maximum values in the Turkestan region - 60 days, the minimum - in Akmola, Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan regions (5 days a year). According to experts, taking into account the climate change trend, by 2040-2059 this figure will be 25 days in the country. Accordingly, in some regions it will be many times more.
Of particular concern to experts is the melting of glaciers that feed rivers in the south and east of the country. Their loss gives more water in the summer, but over time it will become less, which will ultimately lead to a shortage. With a warming of 2.7 °C by 2050, 9% of glaciers will disappear in the Almaty region, East Kazakhstan - 27%, Turkestan - 30%, Zhetisu - 31%, Zhambyl - 82%.
Experts believe that the identified risks in the future may have a negative impact on the economy and various spheres of life of the population. To level them, the state and business already now need to take comprehensive measures to adapt to new climatic conditions.
More information on climate risk analysis can be found on the website of the ESGQ Rating Agency https://esgq.kz/.
As previously reported, CACF and ESGQ Rating Agency concluded a Memorandum of Cooperation. The parties agreed that the priority areas of interaction will be the application of the ESGQ methodology for assessing ESG maturity in CACF projects, the development of methodologies for assessing climate risks, as well as joint analytical and educational products for business and government agencies in Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
ESGQ rating agency was founded in 2022 and is the first ESG rating agency in Central Asia. The agency conducts ESG scoring and ESG risk assessment by industry and enterprise according to its own methodology (registered copyright object), forms ESG passports, helps companies develop sustainable development strategies and non-financial reporting, and implements training programs. ESGQ is a member of the UN Global Compact.
