How Can Central Asia Ensure Food Security in a Changing Climate?

Climate change in Central Asia, driven by global warming, could lead to food shortages across the region in the foreseeable future. Temur Yunusov, PhD in Biological Sciences, Scientific Adviser to the Central Asian Climate Fund (CACF) and a member of the Cambridge Forum for Central Asia, has proposed potential solutions to this emerging challenge.

The main consequences of climate change can broadly be divided into three key areas: rising average temperatures, increasing freshwater scarcity, and more frequent extreme weather events. According to Yunusov, these factors are having a profoundly negative impact on agriculture and, consequently, pose a serious threat to food security in Central Asia. The entire region is particularly vulnerable even to minor temperature shifts because of its sharply continental climate, characterized by extreme temperatures in both winter and summer and very short periods of moderate temperatures in spring and autumn.

«This is precisely what has shaped the region’s flora and fauna: plants and animals have adapted to these conditions and make maximum use of the short spring season to complete accelerated life cycles within this limited window of optimal temperature and humidity. The shift we are observing as a result of climate change is that this short spring window is rapidly shrinking and is frequently disrupted by brief but sharp temperature fluctuations. Late frosts during flowering and abnormally early scorching heat can damage delicate blossoms and disrupt the pollination process, sharply reducing yields throughout the entire growing season», the expert emphasized.

Yunusov believes that trends toward more extreme temperatures and increasing freshwater scarcity will continue to intensify, making traditional open-field farming practices increasingly unviable. The most effective solution to this challenge, he argues, is to transition toward controlled-environment agriculture and ensure that these practices are made as economically and environmentally sustainable as possible.

«Hydroponic and aeroponic cultivation in purpose-built, temperature-controlled greenhouses would not only enable large and stable yields of fresh produce throughout the year, but also dramatically reduce agricultural water consumption», said the CACF Scientific Adviser.

The advantages of these solutions include:

• reliable and predictable food production;

• low water consumption and greater potential for closed-loop water circulation systems;

• reduced or complete elimination of the use of pesticides and herbicides;

• significantly more efficient and reduced fertilizer use, with no runoff into the environment;

• the ability to produce at scale higher-yielding and/or more flavorful but delicate crop varieties;

• complete independence from soil quality and, consequently, from the location of farms.

The disadvantages of hydroponic and aeroponic farms include:

• high upfront construction and operating costs, requiring specialized infrastructure to support the facilities;

• high energy requirements, which could potentially be reduced through widespread use of heat pumps and solar panels, although this would further increase initial capital expenditure;

• the need for highly skilled personnel to operate and manage the facilities;

• potential unsuitability or economic infeasibility for calorie-dense staple crops such as wheat, rice, and corn, as well as for fruit trees.

«These solutions are expensive and will require significant investment not only from private-sector partners but also from national governments, particularly in terms of legislative, educational, and sector-specific regulatory support. However, the alternative to this costly undertaking is heightened food-security risks and a growing likelihood of a major agricultural crisis leading to regional food shortages or famine. The controlled and isolated nature of hydroponic and aeroponic farms also makes it possible to cultivate a greater diversity of crops, thereby diversifying diets and providing alternative food options», Temur Yunusov noted.

The use of hydroponic and aeroponic farms could significantly reduce demand for water and free up water resources for the implementation of other agricultural practices, for example, in fields used to grow monocot crops.

«Fields for monocot crops may also potentially require a radical change in approach. Since all monocot plants are characterized by a widespread but shallow root system, it may be possible to develop specialized fields for these crops. Such fields could incorporate a ceramic tray with a capillary irrigation system installed at an optimal depth for the crops in question. Essentially, this would function as a large ‘pot,’ preventing water from draining into deeper soil layers while providing underground irrigation directly to the zone where the roots are located, thereby eliminating water losses from the soil surface due to evaporation. Because water is delivered directly to the roots, it could be enriched with fertilizers at an optimal concentration, which, in turn, would sharply reduce the amount of fertilizer required per hectare», the expert explained.

Such fields could still require additional artificial shading to protect plants during the extreme summer months, which would increase costs. Another significant drawback of this approach is that, unlike hydroponic and aeroponic farms, it has not yet been tested anywhere in the world. Therefore, as a highly experimental concept, it would require further research and optimization to ensure reliable operation.

Temur Yunusov believes that even the measures outlined above may not be sufficient to preserve current agricultural practices across Central Asia in the long term. Summer temperatures in some parts of the region could become so extreme that they make all forms of traditional open-field farming impossible. In this case, it may be advisable to establish intra-regional zoning agreements under which areas such as northern Kazakhstan or the highland regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan could be used to grow wheat, rice, and corn for the rest of Central Asia.

«This would mean replacing the concept of national food security with that of regional food security, whereby countries regard the food security of their neighbors as being just as important as their own. If food is not consistently available and affordable across Central Asia, this could lead to large-scale migration within the region. A sudden influx of millions of hungry refugees would likely create significant social, economic, and political pressures in any country. It is therefore in the national interest of every Central Asian country to ensure that its neighbors have resilient food-production capacity and the ability to keep their populations in place», the expert concluded.