What Are the Risks of Climate Change for Central Asia?

Increasing pressure on key economic sectors, deteriorating public health, prolonged droughts and devastating mudflows, water and food shortages, and large-scale migration are among the grim realities of a changing climate. Temur Yunusov, Scientific Advisor to the Central Asian Climate Foundation (CACF), Doctor of Biological Sciences, and member of the Cambridge Forum on Central Asia, has analyzed the risks that global warming poses to Central Asia.

The major impacts of climate change can generally be grouped into three key areas: rising average temperatures, increasing freshwater scarcity, and more frequent extreme weather events. According to Yunusov, these factors have far-reaching consequences for the population, agriculture, industry, and the economies of Central Asian countries. The region is highly vulnerable even to minor temperature shifts due to its sharply continental climate, characterized by extreme temperatures in both winter and summer and only brief periods of mild weather during spring and autumn.

«This climate has shaped the region's flora and fauna. Plants and animals have adapted to these conditions, making the most of the short spring season by completing accelerated life cycles within this narrow window of optimal temperature and moisture. What we are now observing is that this already brief spring window is rapidly shrinking and is increasingly disrupted by sudden and severe temperature fluctuations. Late frosts during flowering and unusually early heatwaves can damage delicate blossoms and disrupt pollination, dramatically reducing crop yields throughout the growing season», the expert emphasized.

Rising Average Temperatures

Even modest increases in average temperatures result in significant changes in peak temperatures and the duration of heatwaves. These changes affect nearly every sector, from agriculture and food security to heightened risks of social unrest caused by food shortages and increased migration.

Many industrial processes and engineering solutions were originally designed to operate under more moderate climatic conditions, increasing the likelihood of system failures. This includes mining, construction, power generation and transmission, as well as energy infrastructure that faces growing strain as households and businesses rely more heavily on air conditioning.

«High temperatures will place additional pressure on healthcare systems, leading to potentially fatal heatstroke among elderly people and young children. We must also recognize the increased risk of failure of critical public infrastructure, including overheating of power transmission towers, softening of asphalt roads, and possible deformation of railway tracks. Such failures can significantly worsen the consequences of emergencies. Furthermore, lithium batteries typically become less efficient at elevated temperatures, which could affect electric vehicles as well as battery-powered equipment used in critical industries, such as monitoring systems for oil and gas pipelines», Temur Yunusov added.

A key point is that rising temperatures are driven by greenhouse gas emissions, and given current emission trends, this process is unlikely to stop in the foreseeable future.

«This means there is little point in hoping that the situation is temporary, that it will simply resolve itself, or somehow improve without additional action. Permanently rising temperatures are the new reality, and all processes affected by higher temperatures must adapt accordingly», the Doctor of Biological Sciences noted.

According to Yunusov, adaptation measures may include shifting working hours to cooler periods of the day or nighttime, as well as installing air conditioning wherever feasible.

«Ideally, the entire Central Asian region should adopt ground-source heat pump systems as the standard solution for heating and cooling buildings. National building codes should also require high levels of thermal insulation and the pre-installation of underground piping needed for geothermal heat pump systems», he said.

Overall, these measures represent adaptation rather than a solution to the root cause, as eliminating rising temperatures is impossible without a dramatic global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

Freshwater Scarcity

Freshwater has always been one of Central Asia's most valuable resources. The Earthquakes without Frontiers research project, led by Professor James Jackson of the University of Cambridge, examined why the major cities along the Silk Road were historically established on active fault lines. Every few centuries these cities were completely destroyed by earthquakes, yet their inhabitants consistently chose to rebuild them in the same locations rather than relocate to more geologically stable areas. The reason was simple: fault lines determined the availability of water.

«Our ancestors understood that rebuilding cities every few hundred years was an acceptable price to pay for reliable access to freshwater. For centuries, Central Asian cities lived within the limits of their available water resources, adopting agricultural practices and cultivating crops suited to the region's climate.

With the arrival of the Soviet Union and the large-scale diversion of water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers to irrigate highly water-intensive crops such as cotton, the Aral Sea rapidly deteriorated. Unsustainable irrigation practices led to soil erosion, salinization, and the desertification of once-fertile land.

Unfortunately, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, agricultural practices across much of Central Asia remained largely unchanged, allowing these problems to continue accumulating. Against the backdrop of climate change and the rapid retreat of glaciers, the situation has now reached a critical point. Yet irrigation systems continue to operate as though the Amu Darya and Syr Darya still contained unlimited supplies of freshwater», Temur Yunusov explained.

Glaciers, the primary source of clean freshwater in Central Asia, are retreating because rising temperatures at higher elevations prevent water from freezing into snow and ice. The rate at which glaciers melt depends largely on their mass: the larger the glacier, the more slowly it melts. Consequently, as glaciers lose mass, the melting process accelerates further.

«This is already creating a false sense of optimism regarding the replenishment of the Northern Aral Sea. Unless Kazakhstan has reduced its water consumption by 30 percent, rising water levels in the Aral Sea should actually be viewed as a cause for concern. It means that larger volumes of freshwater stored in glaciers are being converted into saline water at an accelerating pace. In the short term, this may appear to be positive news for the Northern Aral Sea, but in reality it is yet another indication that Central Asia is losing its precious freshwater reserves at an alarming rate», the expert stressed.

Although Central Asian countries acknowledge that glaciers have already lost approximately 30 percent of their volume — affecting everything from agricultural water supplies to the generation capacity of existing hydropower plants — the construction of new hydroelectric dams remains a strategic priority for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Extreme Weather Events

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), every decade since the 1980s has been warmer than any previous decade since 1850. The twenty-year period from 2005 to 2024 was the warmest on record. Moreover, all ten of the hottest years globally have occurred during the current century.

Central Asia, located in the heart of the Eurasian continent and far from the moderating influence of the world's oceans, is warming at a faster rate than the global average. As a result, the region is experiencing increasingly frequent episodes of extreme heat and prolonged drought, leading to widespread crop failures.

Desertification is reducing the amount of land suitable for agriculture while increasing the frequency of dust storms, which pose serious risks to both human and animal health.

This issue is particularly acute in Central Asia due to the emergence of the Aralkum Desert on the dried seabed of the Aral Sea. Salt deposits in the Aralkum contain pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers that were once used to irrigate cotton fields and were subsequently carried into the sea through rivers and groundwater.

Scientists report that both the frequency and intensity of dust storms in the Aral Sea region continue to increase each year. Strong winds carry up to 100 million tonnes of salt, sand, and toxic chemicals annually from the Aralkum, contaminating soil and air hundreds of kilometers away.

Powerful west-to-east jet streams transport aerosols composed of dust and salt from the exposed seabed of the Aral Sea onto the glaciers of the Tian Shan and Pamir mountain ranges, further accelerating glacier melt that is already being intensified by global climate change.

As glaciers continue to retreat rapidly, increasing numbers of unstable moraine lakes are expected to form in mountainous areas. Combined with intense cloudbursts, these lakes significantly increase the risk of mudflows and flash floods. The consequences can be catastrophic, ranging from the destruction of roads and settlements to the loss of human life.

Scientists project that many glaciers in Central Asia could disappear entirely between 2040 and 2050. If global temperatures continue to rise, the region's mountain systems could lose up to 85 percent of their glacial cover by the end of the century.

«This problem cannot be reversed without fundamentally changing the global warming trajectory. The disappearance of glaciers, coupled with desertification, land degradation, and recurring droughts, is likely to undermine agriculture in Central Asia as it exists today.

Without effective mitigation measures, the region could face severe food shortages, famine, large-scale migration, and even demographic collapse in some areas. Freshwater scarcity will inevitably affect both quality of life and public health, increasing the prevalence of diseases associated with inadequate access to clean drinking water.

Industries that depend on freshwater for processing or cooling will undoubtedly experience significant disruptions. However, these impacts may ultimately prove less severe than the consequences of labor shortages caused by migration and increased mortality.

Since preventing these developments entirely may no longer be possible, every effort should now focus on mitigating their impacts and adapting to the new climate reality», Temur Yunusov concluded.