Weather Anomalies in Kazakhstan: Preparing to Live in a New Climate Reality

Scorching heat, hailstorms, torrential rains triggering mudflows, hurricane-force winds, and even tornadoes are all consequences of climate change that are increasingly affecting the people of Kazakhstan and neighboring Central Asian countries. Global warming is raising overall temperatures, increasing the likelihood of prolonged heatwaves, and altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Experts at the Central Asian Climate Foundation (CACF) believe that the climate situation will continue to deteriorate, making it essential for people to prepare for a new climate reality.

On July 21, a tornado that formed suddenly in the Uspensky District of the Pavlodar Region tore roofs off houses, left four villages without electricity, uprooted trees, and even overturned a combine harvester. Tornadoes are not typical for Kazakhstan. They occur most frequently in North America – particularly in the central United States, known as «Tornado Alley» – as well as in Argentina and Bangladesh.

The previous weekend, another severe storm accompanied by hail struck the Pavlodar Region, leaving 11 settlements without electricity and damaging dozens of roofs and building facades.

A few days earlier, hurricane-force winds and hail hit the town of Ereymentau, located 156 km from Astana. At the same time, residents of the capital and most regions of Kazakhstan were suffering from an intense heatwave.

In early July, torrential rains in the mountains near Almaty caused rivers to overflow and raised the threat of mudflows.

May and June were unusually rainy in Shymkent and the Turkistan Region, where this time of year is normally characterized by hot, dry weather with little or no precipitation. Repeated heavy downpours occurred as dry tropical air from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan mixed with cooler, moisture-laden air masses arriving from Russia's temperate latitudes.

Given the ongoing trend of global warming, residents of Kazakhstan and neighboring countries are likely to encounter such weather anomalies with increasing frequency.

Recent scientific studies indicate that the rate of warming in Central Asia – located deep within the Eurasian continent and far from the moderating influence of the world's oceans – is approximately twice the global average. According to international assessments, the global mean annual air temperature has been increasing by approximately 0.19°C per decade in recent decades. Regional scientific research shows that temperatures in Central Asia are rising at a rate of 0.25–0.38°C per decade. Over the past 50–70 years, the region's average annual temperature has increased by approximately 1.5°C.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms that 2025 ranked among the three warmest years on record globally, with the global average temperature reaching approximately 1.44°C above the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).

«Climate change contributes to an overall increase in temperatures and raises the probability of prolonged periods of extreme heat. Since 1976, Kazakhstan's average annual air temperature has been increasing by approximately 0.4°C every ten years. These changes are particularly noticeable in the country's western and southern regions, where the number of days with maximum air temperatures above 30°C has increased by an average of 4–7 days per decade.

At the same time, the frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events—including droughts, heavy precipitation, and sharp temperature fluctuations—may also change. However, every individual weather event results from a combination of atmospheric processes and local factors», – Climate experts at Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan's National Hydrometeorological Service.

According to Kazhydromet, 154 cases of hazardous meteorological events were recorded in Kazakhstan between January and June of this year. The most common were: Very strong winds: 59 cases (38%); Class 5 fire danger: 28 cases (18%); Frost events: 21 cases (14%); Very heavy rainfall: 19 cases (12%).

Kazakhstan recorded 202 hazardous meteorological events in 2023, 190 in 2024, and 135 in 2025. At first glance, the trend appears to be improving. However, considering that 154 such events have already occurred in just the first six months of this year, it is reasonable to expect that 2026 will surpass the figures of previous years.

As in the previous year, extreme temperatures have been recorded across many parts of the world due to the influence of the El Niño climate phenomenon. Western, Central, and Southern Europe have experienced record-breaking highs, with temperatures reaching 40–45°C. Iran recorded one of the highest temperatures in the world, reaching 52.1°C. In July, a wave of tropical air brought temperatures of 40–44°C to Kazakhstan. Extreme heat also persists in Uzbekistan. Along Turkey's Mediterranean coast, particularly in Antalya, daytime temperatures reached 40–41°C, while high humidity pushed the perceived temperature above 50°C. Record-breaking heat has also been reported in several U.S. states.

Meanwhile, in China, approximately 2.8 million people were evacuated in July 2026 due to Typhoon Bavi. In Bangladesh, at least 54 people died as a result of widespread flooding and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. In northern and northeastern India, recent devastating floods and landslides claimed at least 28 lives.

«I believe El Niño will still make itself felt in Central Asia this year, and elevated temperatures across the region are likely to persist well into autumn.

It is deeply concerning when even my most pessimistic forecasts about climate change and its consequences come true so quickly. It means that even in my pessimism, I was still too optimistic. Climate change is unfolding much faster than people realize. In Central Asia, in particular, the absence of large bodies of water means these changes will occur even more rapidly.

One thing is certain: as the pace of global warming continues unabated, the people of Central Asia will have to adapt to a new climatic reality—one characterized by recurring heatwaves and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Governments across the region must begin considering how to minimize the impacts of climate change on both people and the economy. Preparation must be thorough, and it must begin now. We simply do not have the luxury of waiting», – Temur Yunusov, Scientific Advisor to the Central Asian Climate Foundation (CACF), Doctor of Biological Sciences, and Member of the Cambridge Forum on Central Asia.