Heatwave Impacts in Kazakhstan: New Temperature Records and a Rise in Emergency Cases of Arterial Hypertension

The rate of temperature increase in Central Asia is twice the global average. Climate change is already having indirect adverse effects on public health in Kazakhstan. Due to extreme heat in June, the number of emergency-treated cases of arterial hypertension in the country increased by 26% compared to the same period in 2025. In July, new temperature records were set in Kazakhstan's three largest cities. At the same time, Kazakhstan still lacks a unified national Heat-Health Action Plan to protect the population from extreme heat.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2025 ranked among the three warmest years globally, with the average global temperature exceeding the pre-industrial (1850–1900) level by 1.44°C.

According to Kazakhstan's National Hydrometeorological Service (Kazhydromet), 2025 became the warmest year since instrumental meteorological observations began in the country. The average annual air temperature exceeded the 1961–1990 climate norm by approximately 2.9°C.

All seasons of 2025 were characterized by positive temperature anomalies. During the winter of 2024/2025, the average temperature across Kazakhstan was 2.70°C above normal. Spring 2025 became the warmest spring on record, with an average anomaly of +3.0°C, while 68 meteorological stations registered new seasonal temperature records. In summer, the nationwide average temperature anomaly reached +1.06°C, while autumn recorded an anomaly of +1.38°C.

Moreover, nine of the ten warmest years ever recorded in Kazakhstan have occurred in the 21st century, highlighting a persistent long-term warming trend.

«In the western and southern regions, the number of days with maximum air temperatures above +30°C has been increasing by an average of 4–7 days every decade.

Across nearly the entire country, the number of individual heatwaves during the warm season is also increasing. In the southern and southwestern regions, the frequency of such heatwaves grows by approximately 50% every ten years.

The duration of the longest heatwave during the warm season is increasing nationwide. In western and southern Kazakhstan, heatwaves are becoming longer by more than one day every decade on average.

The fastest warming rates are observed in certain regions of the country. For example, in West Kazakhstan Region, temperatures are rising at a rate of 0.59°C per decade», – climate experts from Kazhydromet noted.

According to Kazhydromet, new temperature records were registered across Kazakhstan this year.

On 14 July, Astana set a new temperature record for that date at +38.6°C, exceeding the previous record established in 1992 by 3.3°C.

In Almaty, the maximum air temperature reached +38.0°C on 16 July, surpassing the previous record of +36.1°C, which had stood since 1976. On 17 July, the temperature climbed to +39.2°C, exceeding the previous record of +37.4°C set in 1945. On 18 July, a new record of +40.0°C was recorded, breaking the previous record of +39.7°C established in 1997.

In Shymkent, a new record of +41.3°C was recorded on 16 July 2026, surpassing the previous high of +41.1°C set in 2015. On 17 July, the temperature reached +43.1°C, compared to the previous record of +40.7°C from 1997. On 18 July, the temperature climbed to +45.0°C, exceeding the previous record of +42.3°C set in 1997. On 19 July, another record of +45.2°C was established, surpassing the previous record of +40.3°C from 2007. On 20 July, the temperature reached +41.5°C, breaking the previous record of +39.3°C set in 1940.

According to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Health, even before these temperature records were registered, the number of emergency-treated cases of arterial hypertension in June increased by 26% compared with the same period in 2025. The increase in emergency admissions was observed across all age groups, from children aged one year to adults aged 70 and older. The largest increase was recorded among adults aged 18–59 years, with 283 additional emergency cases.

At present, any direct link between the increase in arterial hypertension cases and rising temperatures can only be considered indirect, as Kazakhstan does not currently calculate or publish the WHO methodology indicator on heat-related mortality at the national level.

However, international estimates (World Bank, 2025) indicate that annual heat-related mortality in Astana and other major Central Asian cities currently stands at approximately 19–21 deaths per 100,000 population, with the potential for a significant increase by 2090 if no adaptation measures are implemented.

Statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Bank, and The Lancet Countdown confirm a direct causal relationship between climate change and human health. It is already known that 37% of heat-related deaths are attributable to anthropogenic climate change, while over the past twenty years, the number of such deaths among people aged over 65 has increased by 85%.

World Bank reports also indicate that 75% of Kazakhstan's territory is exposed to climate-related risks affecting public health. Meanwhile, The Lancet Countdown 2025 Report on Health and Climate Change states that since the 1990s, global heat-related mortality has increased by 23%, with the annual number of heat-related deaths reaching an average of 546,000 worldwide.

«Kazakhstan currently does not have a unified national Heat-Health Action Plan fully developed in accordance with WHO recommendations. However, individual elements of such an approach are already being implemented through the activities of the Ministry of Health, the sanitary and epidemiological service, the civil protection system, and local executive authorities», – the Ministry of Health stated.

According to the World Bank, without additional adaptation measures, heat-related mortality in Central Asian cities could increase dramatically, reaching tens of thousands of deaths annually by 2090 across the region.

«The Ministry of Health and the National Center for Public Health recognize the relevance of this forecast and are working to strengthen adaptation efforts. Planned measures include the development of climate-sensitive healthcare systems and climate-resilient urban environments in cooperation with relevant government agencies, training healthcare professionals, integrating health into national climate strategies, and expanding research on the impacts of climate change on public health», – the Ministry emphasized.

As previously reported, Temur Yunusov, Scientific Adviser to the Central Asian Climate Foundation (CACF), Doctor of Biological Sciences, and member of the Cambridge Forum on Central Asia, believes that the governments of Central Asian countries must urgently begin developing comprehensive adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change.

«One thing is absolutely clear: since the pace of global warming is not slowing, the people of Central Asia will have to live in a new climate reality—coping with recurring heatwaves and increasingly extreme weather events. Governments across the region must therefore consider how to minimize the consequences of climate change for both people and the economy. Preparation must begin immediately and be carried out thoroughly—we no longer have time to delay», – he stressed.